Pop Pulse News

Riley Leonard vs. Will Howard: Who has the edge in the national championship?

By Connor O'Gara

Riley Leonard vs. Will Howard: Who has the edge in the national championship?

With all due respect to Riley Leonard and Will Howard, Monday night's national championship isn't being billed as some other great title game quarterback matchups.

Think 2019 Joe Burrow vs. Trevor Lawrence or even 2021 Stetson Bennett IV vs. Bryce Young. I'll always have a great appreciation for 2016 Deshaun Watson vs. Jalen Hurts, or if we want to go back a couple decades, 2005 Matt Leinart vs. Vince Young was worthy of that kind of billing.

Great quarterback matchups, however, don't always guarantee a great game -- 2018 Tua Tagovailoa vs. Lawrence comes to mind -- while the inverse is also true. You don't need an elite quarterback matchup to have an elite national title game. The 2015 battle of Watson vs. Jake Coker delivered, as did 2013 Nick Marshall vs. Jameis Winston.

In other words, we don't know what we're in for with Leonard vs. Howard. At least not in terms of how good of a game they'll give us.

Ohio State is an 8.5-point favorite vs. Notre Dame, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Let's break this down into categories and decide who'll have the advantage when Riley's Fighting Irish meets Howard's Buckeyes on Monday night:

Advantage -- Howard

I'd consider those to be 3rd-and-7 or longer. The weapons (we'll get to that later) certainly are part of this, but if we're pretending that all things are equal for the sake of this category, Howard has been a touch better in those spots than Leonard. It's not, however, a strength for either quarterback.

And if you break it down by 3rd-and-10 and longer, that actually favors Leonard, but it's not exactly a convincing mark:

To recap, Howard converted with his arm on 3rd-and-7 or longer at a 27.9% clip, while Leonard did so at just a 14% clip. It's somewhat telling that neither quarterback has more than 50 attempts in those spots. Credit that to each offense's ability to stay on schedule. In case you were wondering, Ohio State only had 19 such rushing attempts in those 3rd-and-long spots (that's a little more than 1 per game), while Notre Dame had 27.

A variety of factors play into why neither quarterback has been particularly good on 3rd-and-long. Teams with elite defenses like Notre Dame and Ohio State have the luxury of being somewhat conservative in those spots. Neither Howard nor Leonard would fall into the "gunslinger" camp like Shedeur Sanders, who had 66 such attempts on 3rd-and-7 or longer.

But Howard has the benefit of someone like true freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith, who had 12 catches for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns in those spots (he's also No. 4 in FBS with 349 receiving yards on all 3rd-down situations). Compare that to Notre Dame's leader in those situations, Mitchell Evans, who had 6 catches for 86 yards.

You already know the Smith part of this. That's not really a question, even coming off his worst game of his decorated career with just 1 catch for 3 yards on 3 targets vs. Texas. The Longhorns had the Jim Thorpe Award winner in Jahdae Barron, plus bracket coverage galore on Smith.

The better question is whether Notre Dame has a receiver who's better than Ohio State's No. 3 wideout, Carnell Tate. The sophomore stepped up with 7 catches for 87 yards against Texas while Smith was being blanketed. That was an X-factor for the Buckeyes, as was the experienced Emeka Egbuka, who'll likely finish the season in the 1,000-yard club with double-digit touchdowns. That club is only 4-deep at the Power Conference level. It includes the aforementioned Smith.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, doesn't have a single pass-catcher who had:

It's "E." It's always "E."

That's not to say it will be impossible for the Irish receivers to step up. Go ask Penn State about defending Jaden Greathouse, who made as important of a catch as any for the Irish in the 21st century. Go figure that his 54-yard score came on the heels of 4 consecutive games of failing to hit 20 receiving yards. Yeah, that's wild for a national championship participant's leading receiver.

To be clear, I'd still say that even if Will Howard had been able to stay on his feet instead of tripping over the turf monster on that run against Texas. That did, however, mark his 2nd-longest run in a Buckeyes uniform and he's only hit 20 rushing yards 3 times in 15 games.

It's not a bold take to say that Leonard has been better in this area. Forget playing in a national championship. Leonard's not even getting a transfer portal offer from the Irish if not for his mobility.

Leonard is up to 866 rushing yards (No. 1 among Power Conference QBs) and 16 rushing scores, which trails only Jalen Milroe among Power Conference quarterbacks. He admittedly doesn't have remarkable speed or power, but Leonard's ability to work angles and fall forward has become a monumental aspect of the Irish offense. That's why he has PFF's No. 2 rushing grade among Power Conference quarterbacks. He has 6 4th-down conversions with his legs, and he's No. 3 among all FBS players with 83 rushing yards on 4th down.

Only 2 opponents -- Penn State and Indiana -- prevented Leonard from having at least 1 10-yard run -- and the Irish still won both games. Speaking of Penn State, that was the only defense to sack Leonard more than 2 sacks in a game. His savviness avoiding pressure and living to see another day has been crucial for Notre Dame. That'll be everything against that surging Ohio State pass rush.

I could make a pretty good argument for both defenses here, and I realize that Ohio State is probably the consensus answer because we're talking about a unit that allowed 8 passing touchdowns and 8 passing plays of 30 yards in 15 games. The Buckeyes' goal-line stand against Texas was par for the course for a unit that allowed an absurd 41.7% red-zone touchdown percentage. I get all of that, and I mean no disrespect by chopping this one down the middle.

But I wanted to draw attention to just how good Notre Dame's defense has been on extra rest. Opposing quarterbacks have been a shell of themselves in those spots vs. the Irish:

That's half a season's worth of data, and arguably the best QB performance that the Irish allowed when it was coming off extra rest was against Stockton, AKA the guy who led his team to 10 points. Al Golden and Marcus Freeman can dial it up. Period.

I don't know how many times I have to say it, but this Notre Dame pass defense is as good as there is in the sport, which is why it ranks No. 1 in FBS in opposing QB rating for the 2nd consecutive year. That includes Ohio State. Go back to August and tell someone that the Buckeyes would face Nico Iamaleava, Dillon Gabriel and Quinn Ewers in a 3-game stretch en route to the title game. Now tell them that none of those guys would surpass 21 points ... a mark that Oregon only hit after Ohio State had a 41-15 lead in the 4th quarter.

The Buckeyes have gotten all-world performances from Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau and Cody Simon, and the fact that any quarterback who manages to withstand their defensive pressure is still subjected to throwing downfield against Caleb Downs feels unfair.

But let's be clear. It doesn't feel right to claim that either Howard or Leonard has an "advantage" in this department against a pair of defenses that rank No. 1 and No. 2 against the pass with seemingly near-perfect track records shutting down quarterbacks in the Playoff.

Advantage -- Howard

You're not playing in the national championship unless you have some clutch to your game. Leonard certainly has that. He has an 11-2 TD-INT ratio when blitzed, and among FBS quarterbacks with at least 2 games vs. teams currently ranked inside the AP Top 25, Leonard ranks No. 11 in QB rating (140.4). He led a comeback while facing a double-digit deficit against a loaded Penn State defense in a semifinal game. Leonard isn't being dragged to the Playoff final. He just won't be confused for the aforementioned Bennett anytime soon.

Howard has the edge here for a few reasons. Even with the Michigan performance, he's still by definition "clutch." He has a 181.5 QB rating when trailing by 1 to 7 points, and when tied, he's 7th among Power Conference players with a 164.3 QB rating (min. 50 attempts). Against teams that are currently ranked in the AP Top 25, he's No. 3 in FBS in quarterback rating. Howard has 12 touchdown passes in those games, which only trails Dillon Gabriel. Needless to say, the former got the last laugh in that battle with about as flawless of a first-half performance as you'll see.

But if you need a recent example, go to that all-important go-ahead drive against Texas. Howard marched Ohio State down the field with a 13-play, 88-yard drive to take the lead with 7 minutes to play. That drive featured an 18-yard pass to Tate on 3rd-and-8 and that all-important 18-yard run on 4th-and-2. Howard was every bit as clutch as he could be in those moments.

Well, outside of getting stopped by the turf monster.

Advantage -- Howard

You might be able to make the case that Howard has more to work with and this isn't a fair fight for Leonard, who simply doesn't have the weapons that Ohio State has. Could Howard keep the chains moving like Leonard has without game-breakers at receiver? Howard was in a Leonard-like situation at Kansas State, which had limited pass-catching options at wide receiver (leading receiver Ben Sinnott was "Tyler Warren Light"). But Kansas State still had a top-10 scoring offense.

But what's more relevant is that Howard has been playing lights out while Leonard admitted he hasn't played his best in these Playoff victories. Howard faced 3 top-20 defenses during this Playoff run and he averaged 10.4 yards/attempt with a 179.5 QB rating in a trio of double-digit victories. He's averaged 306.3 yards passing with 6 TD passes in those games, too.

Does that mean he'll be lights out against the Irish? If that's your takeaway from this column, go back to the "more favorable defensive matchup" section and remind yourself how suffocating Notre Dame's defense has been with extra time to prepare. It wouldn't be stunning if Howard had multiple turnovers for an Ohio State offense that looked much more like the unit that we saw against Texas compared to the one that we saw against Oregon in the rematch.

Alternatively, Howard could continue his post-Michigan rampage en route to College Football Playoff National Championship MVP honors, and we'll continue to wonder how Ohio State was ever bottled up like it was that day in Columbus.

Previous articleNext article

POPULAR CATEGORY

corporate

9063

tech

9820

entertainment

11375

research

5026

wellness

8929

athletics

11741