Tulane 24, Kansas State 23

Assuming Darian Mensah maintains the level he exhibited in August, it will come down to Tulane's ability to defend Kansas State's Avery Johnson. There are so many unknown variables early in a season, but speed kills when a running quarterback gets in the open field. A more battle-tested Tulane defense limited eventual Big 12 champion Kansas State to 10 points on the road two years ago. More points are likely this time, but the Wave is talented enough to pull the upset of the expected Big 12 Conference contender as a 9-point underdog.