After a wild race in Daytona, the NASCAR Cup Series is in Atlanta next for the Ambetter Health 400. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are tied as favorites to win Sunday's race, but Atlanta's modified track lends itself to upsets: Remember last year's three-car-wide photo finish?
To detangle all our questions about the Daytona crashes, the outlook for Atlanta and who to pick to win the race, we're going to our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi.
Take it away, guys!
The Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway is this Sunday, Feb. 23, at 3 p.m. ET, airing on Fox.
First, we have to ask about Daytona. We want your unvarnished takes. Jeff pointed out that NASCAR "has little incentive to try to address the fuel-mileage game because it looks spectacular on TV." But then it's also ridiculous watching a race where it's smooth sailing for 499 miles, and then the last stretch is, as The Athletic's own Chris Sprow said it, "like letting the Masters end in a knife fight on the 18th fairway." Does NASCAR need to make changes to the superspeedway race? Is it a "good" race?
Jeff: Superspeedway racing has always been a bit of a game of chance. Sure, some drivers are better at it than others. But whenever you have 35 cars racing around in a giant pack, all it takes is one small mistake to wipe out half of the field. That said, I don't think it's good to have the Daytona 500 repeatedly decided this way. There were always "Big One" wrecks at some point, but with this car, the race format has encouraged drivers to push and shove until the pot boils over -- often on the final lap. NASCAR needs the best superspeedway drivers to be able to show their skills en route to the win (i.e., a spectacular pass or ballsy block); otherwise, it feels too much like spinning the roulette wheel to determine the biggest race of the season.
Jordan: First off, what's wrong with letting the Masters end with a knife fight? This sounds wildly entertaining. As for what, if any, changes NASCAR could make to alter the current nature of superspeedway racing, the league's options are limited. The Next Gen car is here to stay. Fundamentally altering the track is completely off the table. And teams are always going to look for an edge to gain any possible advantage, which entails telling their drivers to go into fuel-saving mode to minimize time on pit road. Superspeedway racing continually evolves and takes on different forms, and right now, this is the era we're in -- which, to be honest, isn't all that different from the previous era that routinely saw the Daytona 500 have late crashes, upset winners and drivers frequently lament superspeedway racing.
What can we apply from the racing we saw at Daytona, outside of the wrecks, that didn't show up in the final standings? What might people miss from just looking at the results that might apply to predictions for Atlanta and the rest of the season?
Jeff: Austin Cindric truly is an elite superspeedway racer. Unfortunately, he didn't get the result to show for it -- not his fault at all -- but he displayed the patience and poise that is often required to win these things. Denny Hamlin was full of praise for Cindric on his podcast, and people are paying attention now.
Jordan: That it was William Byron who virtually locked himself into the playoff field is notable. Daytona is one of those tracks that affords a driver who's unlikely to make the playoffs an opportunity to steal a bid. But with Byron punching his playoff ticket, this assures that the playoff field will include at least one driver who is viewed as a serious title contender.
Speaking of wild racing, one of the craziest finishes last year -- the three-wide photo finish with Daniel Suarez taking a stunning victory -- was at the next track up: Atlanta. Do you think we could be in for yet another wild finish?
Jeff: Well, it depends. Last year was so unique because they actually got to race it out instead of all crashing on the last lap. Suarez told us last week that Atlanta racing is like watching a video on 1.5 speed while Daytona is like normal speed; the runs happen so quickly at the mini superspeedway that drivers cannot throw crazy blocks as easily. That may be the secret ingredient to why Atlanta has raced so well since getting reconfigured.
Jordan: The potential is certainly there for another memorable finish, with Atlanta becoming one of NASCAR's most entertaining tracks since it was reconfigured three years ago. But the one thing to be mindful of is that as the track continues to wear, it becomes less a mini version of Daytona/Talladega and more reminiscent of its previous configuration. This metamorphosis isn't going to suddenly happen, but ever so gradually, and some drivers have said they're already seeing the change. It will be interesting to see what the racing is like on Sunday.
Have any drivers proven adept at avoiding crashes? Maybe driving more conservatively, staying away from heated drivers? Is that even a skill?
Jeff: There's one strategy that involves racing in the back for the entire race and letting others crash ahead of you, then trying to pick up positions at the end. Corey LaJoie, for example, raced toward the front at Daytona but then gave up stage points and dropped out of the running at the end of each stage; he's not running full time, so why risk getting in a crash for the stage win? But for the most part, crash avoidance is pretty much luck. That's why people felt Byron got lucky on Sunday at Daytona; he was seventh when the six cars crashed in front of him on the final lap, and a hole opened up, and he drove through it.
Jordan: There are some drivers who have a good sense for when a crash is about to develop and recognize they need to remove themselves from the position they're currently in. You'll often see this on a superspeedway where a driver will suddenly drop out of the pack thinking a wreck is about to occur. Denny Hamlin is one of the best at this, which is among the reasons he's often so strong whenever the series visits Daytona and Talladega.
Saturday's qualifying session will be aired on Amazon Prime Video for the first time (at 11:30 a.m. ET). Do you think this deal with Prime will help NASCAR bring in more viewers and more interest? Is this good for drivers, teams, et al.?
Jeff: Surprisingly, a survey we did with more than 4,500 responses showed that 83.6 percent of NASCAR fans already have an Amazon Prime subscription. I was shocked by that. I'm not sure it will help NASCAR attract new viewers, but the extra money the sport brought in by selling off part of the season to Prime is something that will benefit everyone, from teams to racetracks.
Jordan: Partnering with a streaming service was a smart business decision by NASCAR, something that was long overdue. Talking with teams, most see the upside both in the immediate (additional revenue) and long term (future growth), even if it perhaps makes the sport less accessible -- though, based on Jeff's recent reporting, this seems to be a misnomer. The question that still needs to be answered is: Will partnering with Amazon help NASCAR attract new fans? All parties involved know this is imperative and believe they're now well-positioned to do just this. We'll see.
OK, let's do it: Who do you think will win at Atlanta?
Jeff: I'll go with Cindric, as mentioned earlier. He's actually tied for the third-best odds, so people are onto his superspeedway prowess now. But let's remember it's still a superspeedway where upsets often occur (just look at Suarez last year), so there's no need to stick to the favorites this week.
Jordan: Team Penske is the best when it comes to superspeedways, and this applies to Atlanta, too. Last year, Blaney nearly won this race, only to lose in a photo finish to Suarez. And in the fall, teammate Logano began his march to a third Cup Series title by winning the playoff opener here. This is a long way of saying you can't go wrong with either Blaney or Logano, nor Penske's third driver, Cindric, who led the most laps in the Daytona 500.
Who is a long shot you like?
Jeff: Erik Jones should have won Duel No. 2 last week at Daytona (except for an ill-timed caution flag less than 100 yards from the finish), and the Legacy Motor Club cars all finished in the top 11. Let's see if that translates over, since he's +4000 on BetMGM. And although Cole Custer drew heat for triggering the last two Big Ones at Daytona, let's remember he was running toward the front in the first place; he's +6000, so that might not be a bad driver to take a chance on.
Jordan: Todd Gilliland is one "long shot" that offers good value, as he's listed at +4000 on some boards. Gilliland nearly won this race last year and often places himself in contention on superspeedways. Also consider Michael McDowell (+4000 on DraftKings), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+4500) and Noah Gragson (+7000). Seeing any of these three winning on Sunday would not be a surprise at all.
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