Ross Atkins revealed something interesting about his club's internal expectations for next season at the GM meetings in San Antonio this week.
The Blue Jays GM said the club's internal projections show an additional 10 wins next season from players they have under club control. Those wins wouldn't cost them a single additional dollar.
"If you just looked at our projections and the performance of players and did the math on that, you could make the case that we have 10 wins within our roster right now to close (the gap) if we deploy them appropriately and put them in the best positions to be successful," Atkins said, as reported by Sportsnet's Shi Davidi. Atkins said that meant paying attention to "when they're playing and how they're playing and who they're playing against."
Ten extra wins would've vaulted the Jays from last to third place in the AL East last season and put them two games behind the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers for the final wild-card berths.
Ten extra wins alone wouldn't guarantee a playoff berth in 2025, but it'd reduce how much external improvement is needed.
External improvement is expensive, whether in the form of free-agent contracts or prospects traded. One win above replacement on the free-agent market generally costs teams about $9 million.
So, do 10 additional wins represent wishful thinking, or a comforting reality?
One way to test Atkins' claim is through public forecasts. While they'll differ in varying degrees from a team's private evaluation metrics, some MLB front office staffers note the public forecasts aren't that different from the models teams create.
One set of public forecasts available to us now is the Steamer projections at FanGraphs.
The difference between the Jays' 2024 fWAR totals and the Steamer projection is 9.7 wins. That ranks as the sixth-best projected improvement in MLB.
The player holding the most hidden wins is Bo Bichette.
Bichette is coming off a dreadful, injury-plagued season and is entering his final year before free agency. He should be motivated to perform well in 2025, and his history of excellent performance suggests there'll be a bounce back.
After a 0.3-fWAR season, Steamer is projecting Bichette for 3.4 WAR.
Catcher Alejandro Kirk is projected for 3.9 WAR, a one-win improvement.
The projection system forecasts improvement from young players such as Will Wagner (1.9 WAR in 341 plate appearances) and Spencer Horwitz (2.0 WAR in 552 plate appearances). Other younger players such as Joey Loperfido and Jonatan Clase hold breakout potential, too.
On the pitching side, Steamer forecasts include growth from José Berríos (plus-1.0 WAR), Jordan Romano (plus-0.7 WAR), Bowden Francis (plus-0.6 WAR), and Yariel Rodríguez (plus-0.5 WAR).
The Blue Jays need bullpen help. Perhaps they can find a gem or two in late-season waiver pickups such as Dillon Tate, Nick Robertson, and Michael Peterson.
Combine bounce-back performances with growth from younger, intriguing players, and the Jays are correct to believe they can make significant gains next season.
Player development breakthroughs could also bring additional improvement. Toronto ranks 14th in the majors in hitting balls in the air to the pull side, the batted-ball profile most conducive to home runs and power.
Don Mattingly, the team's offensive strategist last season, was indifferent to implementing hitting programs to develop this. He believed hitters will develop such approaches over time if it suits them.
Mattingly will return to the bench coach role in 2025, and the Blue Jays brought in new hitting coach David Popkins, who was with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Minnesota Twins - teams that emphasize getting the ball in the air. Such skill changes are aided and accelerated by the modern feedback loop of tech and data in training.
The Blue Jays could get more production out of players like Bichette if they began to better tap into pull-side power.
There are error bars inherent with any forecast. But while the Jays' existing players could fall short of a 10-win improvement, they could also exceed it because of unforeseen developments.
Forecasted improvements are no guarantees, of course. Even Atkins acknowledges a 10-win improvement alone won't be enough to contend for the division title, let alone a playoff berth.
"We have to look to add to that group year over year," he said. "Going from good to great is when both things happen."
While signing Juan Soto might be a long shot, adding another quality starting pitcher could turn the rotation into a strength again.
Adding a position player who can impact the game with his glove and bat like Alex Bregman would deepen the club's lineup and avoid having to make so many bat-or-glove tradeoffs.