The 200-Day MA was reclaimed on September 11, leading to a sharp rally to the 3.02 swing high, which is also the top of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. Subsequently, the current decline is the first real test of support around the 200-Day MA since the upside breakout. There was a brief test shortly after the breakout, but this test of support at the 200-Day line takes on a greater significance.

Given that natural gas has fallen hard, down by as much as 0.76 points or 25.4% from the 3.02 high, as of today's low, it may yet break below the 200-Day line. Further, there has been barely a retracement during the decline. There has been only one day out of ten that natural gas has not had a lower daily low and lower high on the way down. This clearly shows sellers in charge, and they may yet stay in charge.

If the 200-Day line is broken to the downside, the 78.6% retracement at 1.92 is next in line as a lower target. Also, the internal uptrend line, which is the lower line of the triangle pattern, needs to be considered as well, if it is eventually approached. Given that resistance was seen at the top of the consolidation pattern, a full swing to test support around the lower boundary of the pattern could yet occur before the decline is complete.

Although the 200-Day MA may not be as reliable of an indicator when inside a larger consolidation pattern, the market did recognize the 200-Day line specifically as support following the September 11 bull breakout. And there have been relatively wide price swings inside the triangle pattern given its large size. Bullish momentum accelerated following the initial test of support on September 19.

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