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Eurozone Activity Stagnates on Germany, France Weakness -- Update


Eurozone Activity Stagnates on Germany, France Weakness  --  Update

The eurozone's economy continues to stagnate, according to business surveys, as policymakers at the European Central Bank consider whether to accelerate interest-rate cuts to spur a recovery.

However, the surveys indicate that Germany and France are largely responsible for the weakness, with activity in other countries increasing at the fastest pace in four months during October.

Private-sector activity in the 20 countries that use the euro currency retreated in October compared with a month earlier, albeit not quite as sharply as in September, according to the Composite Purchasing Managers' Index published Thursday by Hamburg Commercial Bank and S&P Global.

The index rose to 49.7 this month, marginally higher than the 49.6 of September, but still below the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction.

While the eurozone has been one of the weak spots in the global economy this year, similar surveys for Japan and Australia also pointed to a modest decline in private-sector activity during the month. In the U.K., activity continued to increase, but at the slowest pace this year. By contrast, growth in India accelerated from an already rapid pace.

The ECB last week cut its key interest rate for the second meeting in a row, as weaker-than-expected growth prospects prompted policymakers into action. Inflation had also cooled to below the bank's 2% target, reaching 1.7% in September.

This comes as the International Monetary Fund this week downgraded its forecasts for the eurozone for both this year and 2025.

Germany, traditionally the driver of the bloc's economy, is now expected to stagnate this year, as it deals with a slumping manufacturing sector, hit by energy costs, competition with China and labor shortages.

"The eurozone is stuck in a bit of a rut," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

Incoming data may prompt the ECB into more urgent action to encourage growth. Bank of Italy Gov. Fabio Panetta said the ECB may need to lower interest rates to a level where it is stimulating the economy, rather than constraining inflation.

The PMI data strengthens the case for a further rate cut at the next meeting in December, although the magnitude of the cut is uncertain with two months of data still to come, Oxford Economics' Paolo Grignani said.

Increased signs of a weakening economy threaten a soft landing from the surge in inflation that accompanied Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

But on Wednesday, the ECB's Chief Economist Philip Lane said that while there are doubts about a previously expected recovery, the currency zone wasn't experiencing a "dramatic weakening."

Indeed, amid cooling inflation and still-high wages in the euro area's relatively tight labor market, a rebound in consumer spending could give a much-needed boost to the economy, and services firms in particular, de la Rubia said.

The surveys held few signs of an end to the period of weakness, with new orders falling for the fifth straight month, while businesses reported cutting payrolls for the third straight month and at the fastest pace since late 2020.

There were also signs that inflationary pressures are easing, with the prices charged by businesses rising at the slowest pace since February 2021.

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