The city of Maricopa is expected to reach a population of 1 million when fully built out, the Phoenix Business Journal reported Friday in its flatteringly titled piece, "This Pinal County city is ready for its economic development spotlight."
But where does that number come from -- and what does it mean?
"It's important to clarify that this figure is more of a theoretical estimate based on our extensive planning area, which spans approximately 233 square miles," said Quinn Konold, a spokesperson for the city of Maricopa.
The city today has developed only 43 of those square miles and the city's population, according to Konold, is estimated at 76,000.
Maricopa Chief Strategy Officer Rick Horst said with the number of housing units already permitted, Maricopa would have a population of more than 210,000 if all the units were built and occupied without approving any new projects.
"While we recognize that our planning area could accommodate significant growth, we cannot predict precisely how or when this might happen," Konold said.
A few active projects are expected to move the city along in achieving that eye-popping number.
The long-awaited $100 million waterpark PHX Surf is slated to be completed in late February 2026.
The proposed Industrial Triangle along Maricopa-Casa Grande Highway, thanks in part to Redevco Solutions and Rail Industrial Partners, is estimated to have a total investment of $1.4 billion and would be 6 million square feet, rail-served and could bring as many as 36,000 jobs.
The University of Arizona earmarked 2,100 acres for an innovation center with a 300-acre research and technology park, satellite education campus and 600 acres of commercial buildings. Construction for the innovation center is expected to start in the spring.
There's Murphy Park, a 500-acre master-planned community just north of Maricopa-Casa Grande Highway that has about half of its land reserved for business park development and has the potential to include 1,870 homes.
Lastly is the Copper Sky medical campus, which is accepting bids since the city's deal with hospital developer S3 Biotech fell through for the second time in April. The campus is slated for 1.6 million square feet and is expected to include a hospital, medical office space, apartments, condominiums, a hotel and sports academy.
"We are dedicated to cultivating a community that prioritizes sustainability and resilience, ensuring that any future growth aligns with our long-term vision for Maricopa," said Konold.
It's important to note that even if the current population density was expanded over the city's planning area, the population would only be about 350,000. That means in order to attain 1 million in population at full buildout, there would need to be more vertical residential buildings and compact living like apartments and townhomes.
Multifamily housing makes up less than 2% of housing options in Maricopa, according to U.S. census data. But the city government in 2019 set the lofty goal one-fourth of all homes would be multifamily, admitting last year "Maricopa is nowhere near that goal."
However, Konold said that's not the city's sole focus.
"Our mission is to 'unlock the full potential of the city of Maricopa to create a thriving and durable community,'" Konold said. "This means our focus is not on a specific population number, but rather on making informed, sustainable decisions that enhance the quality of life for all residents."