The Fearless Prediction has spent the past 3 weeks getting rested and ready for one of the biggest games in the 130+ year history of Tennessee football. It's the first round of the newly expanded College Football Playoff as the Vols face the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus.
The Buckeyes are a 7.5-point favorite, via FanDuel Sportsbook.
There has been a lot of talk recently about the possible effect of cold weather on the southern Vols. Kickoff temperatures will be in the low 20s. But it isn't like Knoxville is the Sahara. Temps in the low 30s in East Tennessee on Saturday night.
The colder temperatures could play into the Vols' hands. Tennessee rushes for 232 yards per game, 9th-best nationally. SEC offensive player of the year Dylan Sampson gained 1,485 yards on the ground with 22 scores, both single-season program records. Sampson is the focal point of this offense. Against Power Conference opponents, the fewest carries he had was 19 against Georgia, while the fewest rushing yards was 92 against Oklahoma. Overall in those games, Sampson is averaging more than 24 carries and over 131 yards per game.
In other words, if Ohio State wants to stop Tennessee, it first must stop Sampson. Ohio State has contained most teams -- only 2 opponents have topped 150 yards rushing. But Michigan committed to the run -- 42 attempts for 172 yards -- and upset the Buckeyes in the regular-season finale.
Tennessee's game plan will be more diverse but expect a heavy dose of Sampson.
QB Nico Iamaleava has run the ball more effectively lately as well, averaging over 30 yards a game over the past 6 contests. Tennessee might not throw the ball as much as they typically do in this game, but if Iamaleava can hit 2 or 3 deep balls to a banged up receiving corps that looks to be healthier after 3 weeks off, that might be all it takes to put Tennessee into the quarterfinals against top-ranked Oregon.
Offensively the Vols are scoring 37.2 points per game and racking up 462.9 yards per game, 8th-best nationally in both metrics. However, this will be their toughest test. The Buckeyes are ranked No. 1 nationally in scoring defense, allowing fewer than 11 points per game.
Only Oregon managed to score more than 17 points against Ohio State; the Ducks nearly doubled that in a 32-31 win in Eugene.
The Buckeyes are also ranked 1st nationally in total defense, allowing a stingy 241.1 yards per game. And it'll be strength on strength on the ground, as Ohio State is 7th-best in the country in giving up only 96.8 rushing yards per contest. Defensive end JT Tuimoloau has had a monster season, with 11.5 tackles for loss and 6 sacks, leading the Buckeyes in both categories.
Offensively, Ohio State puts up 35.5 points per game (tied for 17th in FBS) and 423.5 yards per game (36th in FBS). QB Will Howard has been good enough to win a bunch, completing 72% of his passes with 27 TD throws. He has 3 future NFL receivers to throw to in true freshman Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. That trio has combined for 158 catches, 2,260 yards and 23 scores. The 2-headed ground game monster of Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson has teamed up for 1,556 rushing yards and 14 TDs.
The Buckeyes have proven they can move the football, Michigan game not withstanding (more on that in a moment), but they haven't seen a defense as good as Tennessee's. Yes, Indiana (and their fraud schedule) is in that conversation, as is Penn State, but the Vols' defensive line can take over this game. James Pearce Jr. and Joshua Josephs have been terrific on the outside, with players like Omari Thomas and Omarr Norman-Lott proving to be tough for offensive linemen to push back. The Vols have 9 players who have recorded at least 33 tackles this season, proof of their defensive depth.
The perceptions of both teams among their fan bases could not be more different. Tennessee has gone from SEC laughing stock to national championship contender in 4 years. Josh Heupel has led the Vols to 30 wins over the past 3 seasons, including 4 over rivals Alabama and Florida. This program has arrived. On the flip side, Ohio State fans are perplexed. The Buckeyes have won 43 games in the past 4 years, losing only 8 during that run. But 4 of those defeats were against rival Michigan. Unacceptable. This season the Wolverines went into Columbus as huge underdogs ... and still beat Ohio State to knock the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten Championship Game. Coach Ryan Day hears the criticism and there is a legitimate -- but wild -- question about his future if OSU can't advance in this Playoff.
For the past couple of weeks, Vols fans have been more than happy to snatch up the tickets of disgruntled Buckeyes fans. It'll be very interesting to see just how much orange makes its way into The Horseshoe for Saturday night's 8 pm kickoff. If recent road games against LSU, Oklahoma and (always) Vanderbilt are any indication, you'll hear those Tennessee fans pretty easily on the ABC broadcast. A Tennessee fan even took to Wikipedia and changed the nickname of Ohio State's stadium to "Neyland North."
Tennessee's road record under Josh Heupel is very average at 8-9. A victory on Saturday night would be his biggest win away from Neyland Stadium ... actually, it would be the biggest win of his coaching career. It'll be a tight one ... but the Vols will survive, and go from the Ohio cold to the California sunshine.