The Bay Area is settling into a dry, mild pattern after a stormy start to February, with above-normal temperatures inland and little rain expected through next week.
A brief period of high pressure is expected to build over Northern California on Friday, bringing highs in the mid-60s to low 70s in the valleys, while coastal areas and higher elevations stay in the mid-50s to mid-60s, according to the National Weather Service. Morning fog may develop in the North Bay and along the coast, with a slight chance of fog reaching San Francisco by Sunday.
"Dry weather is on tap for much of the region for the foreseeable future," weather service meteorologist Dylan Flynn wrote in Friday's forecast discussion. "A few light showers might skirt the northern portion of Sonoma or Napa counties on Sunday into Monday. Otherwise, look for a warming trend through the forecast period."
The shift to drier weather follows a rainy first half of the month, when two atmospheric rivers hit the Bay Area, bringing flooding rains and strong winds. Looking ahead, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has issued its spring outlook, forecasting equal chances of precipitation for much of the Bay Area, though the North Bay has a slightly greater probability of seeing rain as March begins.
"The greatest probability is over the North Bay for us to see precipitation in March," Bay Area weather service meteorologist Roger Gass said. "But largely, our area is leaning towards equal chances of precipitation."
A 50-55% chance of rain is forecast for the Bay Area between March 1 and 14, though forecasters say long-range models suggest near-normal rainfall conditions for the month overall.
"Typically in La Niña patterns, the greatest probability of above-average rainfall is to the north, while conditions dry out the further south you go," Gass said. "This season is largely playing out as expected, with the North Bay seeing the heaviest precipitation and still sitting at a little above 150% of average, while areas farther south, like Monterey, are between 70 and 100%."
The National Weather Service will continue monitoring the pattern, with updates expected in the coming days. For real-time updates, visit weather.gov/bayarea.