BALTIMORE -- They scored 100 points over three games, and the Ravens needed almost every one of them to get past the AFC's top two seeds and the NFC's No. 2 seed to win the Super Bowl.
Every so often, you'll hear some lunkhead claim that Joe Flacco was carried to a Lombardi Trophy by the vaunted Baltimore defense. Anyone who watched those 2012 playoffs knows different. The defense, with Ed Reed in his penultimate season and Ray Lewis playing his final games in the wake of tearing his triceps, was hanging on by the end. It was Flacco's hot hand, paired with the playmaking talents of Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones and Ray Rice, that took the Ravens to the promised land.
This offensive outburst was so memorable in part because it was so unusual for a franchise built on punishing, cocky defense.
That 2012 run is pertinent to 2024 because we're again watching a Ravens team carried by its offense -- in this case a historically potent machine led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
The Ravens have moved the ball so efficiently in recent weeks that they've inspired two questions: Is this the best offense in franchise history, and can it get them to the Super Bowl if their defense and special teams continue to underwhelm?
They're assembling an impressive statistical case: first in yards per play, first in rushing and yards per carry, first in passing yards per attempt, first in first downs, fourth (a hair out of first) in points per game. Jackson is off to the best start of his career, making a case to win his third NFL Most Valuable Player award. Henry leads the league in rushing by almost 100 yards; he's also first in rushing touchdowns, rushes of 20-plus yards and rushes for first downs.
More complex metrics, designed to measure efficiency by looking at every play in context, are just as bullish on the Ravens. They rank second in expected points added, sightly behind the Washington Commanders offense they just outscored. They're an easy first in DVOA and one of the best 25 offenses through six games in the past 46 seasons (that's as far back as DVOA goes). Their balance is even rarer; they're one of just seven teams in 46 years to lead the league in both passing DVOA and running DVOA through six games.
"That's pretty good," said DVOA creator and FTN Fantasy writer Aaron Schatz.
Of the 22 teams in Schatz's database that he had above 30% in offensive DVOA through six games, only two won the Super Bowl but nine made it to the final game.
"It still takes a lot of luck, no matter how good you are," he said. "Not to mention, you have to get past Kansas City."
When he looks at the whys behind the Ravens' success, he sees Henry's remarkable speed and tackle shedding at age 30, the surprisingly effective play of an offensive line that was expected to be the team's weakness and Jackson's leveling up.
Schatz took plenty of heat from Baltimore fans when he was the lone voter not to put Jackson first in MVP balloting last season. "Lamar's playing better than last year," he said. "I got in a lot of trouble with the Baltimore fans, but this year, he's the MVP so far."
You won't gain a lot of traction asking the team's offensive stars to describe how great everything is going. They're aware of the growing hype, and the vibes are impeccable, but the closest they've come to bragging was Jackson describing their "pick your poison offense" after last Sunday's win over Washington.
Asked about the recent acclaim for his offense, Jackson noted that a few weeks ago, critics questioned whether he and Henry could find an identity together: "People are going to say whatever they want to say. We were just 0-2, and [they were saying] we were the worst offense in the league. ... Each and every week, there's going to be something, we just have to focus on being the best offense that the Ravens have ever had."
Asked if he thinks this could be the best offense he has played on, Henry said, "I think you've got to put the work in to have the opportunity to get to that point."
Perhaps the show is easier to appreciate from the sideline. Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton was asked Wednesday what would keep him up at night if he had to face his team's offense.
"I was actually just talking to [defensive coordinator] Zach Orr about that today," he said. "Just watching our offense operate out there, I was like, 'How would you stop Zay Flowers?' And he just gave me like an, 'I don't know. Good thing we don't have to worry about it.'"
Leave it to outside voices to describe the reasons the Ravens cannot be stopped. ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky criticized them as too predictable early in the year. But on a recent episode of "Get Up," he explained how Henry is winning games before the first whistle because coordinators feel compelled to put an extra defender in the box to counter No. 22.
"This is easy for Lamar Jackson," Orlovsky said.
There are three previous offenses in the conversation for best in franchise history. With the caveat that sweeping judgments based on six games are often misguided, none of them were this good this early.
The dark horse is the 1996 offense led by quarterback Vinny Testaverde, which led the league in yards per play and DVOA. The Ravens went 4-12 because their defense was as inefficient as their offense was efficient and they ran into bad luck against a tough schedule. But Testaverde filled the air above Memorial Stadium, with wide receivers Derrick Alexander and Michael Jackson as his primary targets.
Last year's offense, with Jackson winning his second MVP, also deserves mention. That team finished first in rushing, third in in yards per play and fourth in DVOA and demolished a series of playoff-bound opponents.
But it's the 2019 offense that stands out as the best from the Jackson era and the best in franchise history to date. The Ravens easily led the league in scoring, set an all-time rushing record and became the first team in history to average at least 200 rushing yards and 200 passing yards per game. Jackson broke out to win his first MVP in his first full season as the team's starter, rushing for 1,206 yards and throwing 36 touchdown passes. They didn't have a running back to match Henry, but Mark Ingram II and Gus Edwards averaged more than 5 yards per carry, and the offensive line featured three Pro Bowl selections in Ronnie Stanley, Marshal Yanda and Orlando Brown Jr.
When Jackson was asked Sunday if the Ravens' current offense is the most balanced of his career, he pointed to 2019 as a comparison.
Even in a disastrous playoff loss to Henry's Tennessee Titans, the Ravens rolled up 530 yards of offense.
Which brings us to the second question: Are the 2024 Ravens, hindered by one of the league's worst pass defenses through six games, balanced enough to win the Super Bowl?
Previous Ravens teams rated exceptionally well by DVOA, including the 2023 version, were more balanced, ranking near the top in offense, defense and special teams. Schatz believes that's the best formula for winning championships because it gives a team more answers to the questions posed by top opponents in the postseason. That said, if he had to be top-heavy in one area, he'd choose offense.
"Offense is more consistent and predictable than defense," he said. "If you have the No. 1 offense and the No. 13 defense, it's more likely your defense will improve than the other way around."
When he looks down the Ravens' road, he expects them to slip a little on offense but move up on defense and special teams. That formidable blend, combined with a schedule that's relatively easier than those faced by the two NFC contenders (Minnesota and Detroit) ahead of the Ravens in overall DVOA, explains why Baltimore has the best odds to win the Super Bowl, according to Schatz's projections.
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