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ADM Hamburg (FRA:OEL) investors are sitting on a loss of 21% if they invested three years ago


ADM Hamburg (FRA:OEL) investors are sitting on a loss of 21% if they invested three years ago

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term ADM Hamburg Aktiengesellschaft (FRA:OEL) shareholders, since the share price is down 31% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 11%. And over the last year the share price fell 29%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 14% in the last three months.

So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

See our latest analysis for ADM Hamburg

We don't think that ADM Hamburg's modest trailing twelve month profit has the market's full attention at the moment. We think revenue is probably a better guide. Generally speaking, we'd consider a stock like this alongside loss-making companies, simply because the quantum of the profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.

In the last three years, ADM Hamburg saw its revenue grow by 13% per year, compound. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. Shareholders have endured a share price decline of 9% per year. This implies the market had higher expectations of ADM Hamburg. However, that's in the past now, and it's the future is more important - and the future looks brighter (based on revenue, anyway).

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

If you are thinking of buying or selling ADM Hamburg stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of ADM Hamburg, it has a TSR of -21% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

Investors in ADM Hamburg had a tough year, with a total loss of 24% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 7.9%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 2% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - ADM Hamburg has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Of course ADM Hamburg may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

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