Kevin Sherrington, The Dallas Morning News
DALLAS -- Considering one of the supposed notions of the expanded playoffs was an attempt at inclusivity in a nation increasingly divided by the SEC and Big Ten, does the College Football Playoff committee's first stab at a 12-team field sound equitable to you?
Four teams from the Big Ten, led by top-ranked Oregon and runner-up Ohio State.
Four more from the SEC, including Georgia (3), Texas (5), Tennessee (7) and Alabama (11).
And one each from the ACC (Miami), Big 12 (BYU) and Mountain West (Boise State), plus Notre Dame.
The moral is, the rich just keep getting richer, even in a playoff field three times as large as its predecessor.
Before going cynical, though, remember there's still another month of rankings to go, so no need to panic just yet.
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There's also this: Besides Texas, which got a vote of confidence from the chairman of the committee, SMU came in 13th, its highest ranking in playoff history, and Texas A&M managed the 14th slot after a lopsided loss to South Carolina over the weekend. All three schools remain in range and in control of their destinies. Win out, and it's all good.
Of course, that's easier for some than others, according to the All-State Playoff Predictor, which gives Texas a 79% chance at making the playoffs, followed by SMU at 43% and A&M at 17%.
You can imagine the Aggies' case with the committee before last week's 24-point loss. They were the SEC's last undefeated team before bellying up on both sides of the ball to a team that didn't even make the initial rankings. Even so, if A&M runs the table (New Mexico State, Auburn and Texas), forcing its way into the SEC title game, the playoffs still beckon.
Caveat: The Aggies will have to win the SEC to earn an invitation. The committee isn't taking any three-loss teams.
SMU's odds are better for a couple of reasons. First, the rest of its regular-season schedule (Boston College, Virginia and Cal) isn't as daunting. The question is what happens in the ACC title game. Would the Mustangs have to beat fourth-ranked Miami to get in? Probably, but you'd think a close loss would at least give the committee pause.
But that's not the Mustangs' only obstacle if they don't climb into the top 10 over the coming weeks. Because five conference champions make the 12-team field, any champs that don't finish in the top 12 automatically fill in at the bottom of the rankings.
For instance, if Boise State were to finish 13th and SMU 12th, the Broncos would leapfrog the Mustangs should they win the Mountain West.
The good news for SMU, at least for the moment, is that five conferences are in front of them already. If that scenario holds, they'd only need to move up one spot.
But, if the Mustangs don't beat Miami, they still risk getting jumped by A&M, LSU, Ole Miss and even Iowa State.
As for Texas, the Longhorns' case seemed a lot better back when Michigan and Oklahoma were still ranked. Not to mention before that ugly home loss to Georgia.
Now their best win is ... Vanderbilt?
A reporter asked Warde Manuel, the committee chairman, if Texas' hold on the fifth spot is "fragile."
"Well, I think Texas has looked good all year in terms of how they've played," he said. "We don't look at it as being fragile or not.
"We look forward to watching how Texas plays as the season progresses."
Yes, we do, Mr. Chairman.
In case you're wondering, style counts as much as substance with the committee. Miami's defense is suspect, but the Hurricanes are fourth because of Cam Ward, in a two-way race for the Heisman with Boise's Ashton Jeanty. Even though the Big 12's BYU has two wins over ranked teams and Indiana has beaten just one team with so much as a winning record, the Hoosiers came in eighth and the Cougars ninth.
"It really came down to more of an eye test as it related to looking at both teams," Manuel said.
For the record, other than the BYU slight, I didn't have much of a nit to pick with the committee the first time around. The top three choices look solid. Ward does, indeed, make Miami dangerous. Indiana's strength of schedule may rank just 103rd now, but the Hoosiers play Ohio State in Columbus in a couple of weeks. We'll find out soon enough if Indiana is just a basketball school on a lark.
And then there's this local angle: Besides making their cases for the committee, Texas, A&M and SMU also are considered as the best wins for Georgia, Notre Dame and BYU, respectively. There's a moral victory in there somewhere, I suppose.
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