Democrats looking for good news are finding it in an unexpected state tonight, with a new poll of Iowa showing Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump by 3 percentage points, 47% to 44%, among likely voters. Trump won the state by 8 points in 2020, and it hasn't been considered at risk for Republicans this year.

The poll may be an outlier. Harris's lead is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, and another pollster, Emerson College Polling, earlier on Saturday reported Trump ahead in the state by 9 points. But the new survey was conducted by Ann Selzer, who specializes in surveying Iowans and is considered one of the nation's most reliable pollsters. The poll's finding that independents and women are turning away from Trump -- women ages 65 and older favor Harris by more than 2-to-1 in the survey -- will surely give Democrats heart that the poll is detecting broader trends that could be meaningful in the battleground states.