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US economy's fate hangs on jobs report as Fed decides how deep cuts will go

By Dan DeFrancesco

US economy's fate hangs on jobs report as Fed decides how deep cuts will go

The Federal Reserve is finally on the precipice of cutting interest rates. We're less than two weeks out from the Fed's September 18 meeting where the central bank is set to provide Americans with some much-needed relief.

But one hurdle remains between now and then: Friday's job report.

While the data won't jeopardize the central bank's decision to cut rates, it will help it decide how deep it will go. More broadly, a weak or strong report will also provide color on whether the economy is headed toward a soft or crash landing, write Business Insider's Juliana Kaplan, Madison Hoff, and Ayelet Sheffey.

The last jobs report before the Fed's decision was always bound to be a big one. But August's report became even more important after how things went last go around.

Unemployment unexpectedly jumped to 4.3% and fewer jobs were added than economists expected in July's report. Coupled with some weak manufacturing data and shaky earnings, the stock market started melting down.

Ultimately, the market was able to rally back. But the fear of the US slipping into a recession still remains. Friday's job report could go a long way in dispelling those fears or emboldening them.

Regardless of Friday's report, it's important to remember cutting interest rates won't create economic miracles.

If unemployment spikes for a second month in a row, the Fed could offer a deeper rate cut than the typical 25 basis points. But it takes time for the effects of the policy to work its way through the economy.

Bigger also isn't necessarily better when it comes to rate cuts. If the Fed believes it needs to take drastic measures, that's a bad sign for the state of the economy. And don't expect rate cuts to send stocks soaring.

I don't blame you if you're sick of this back-and-forth economy. Experts have waffled to and fro about where things are headed for more than a year.

But at least Friday represents the end of the tunnel. The question is if it'll be bright or dark.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

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