In last week's presidential debate, Donald Trump demonstrated his commitment to the fossil-fuel economy and mocked renewable energy's track record. In his closing remarks, he accused his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, of leading the country down the wrong energy track, falsely portraying Germany's experience.
The German Foreign Ministry swiftly corrected the former president, stating On X, "Germany's energy system is fully operational, with over 50% renewables." The agency further mentioned that its last coal plant will shut down by 2038, with no new ones being constructed. Germany, the world's third-largest economy behind the United States and China, has led the globe's energy transition. However, after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the country had to temporarily rely on coal-fired power in the absence of Russian natural gas.
"The previous Trump administration's track record on changing energy and environment policy was spotty at best," write Samantha Gross and Louison Sall for the Brookings Institution. "A significant part of Trump's energy policy involves rescinding regulations he believes hinder the energy sector, with a focus on energy security rather than climate change."
Trump advocates a policy of "drill, drill, drill," which he says would reduce energy prices by 50%. However, Brookings notes that the United States is already the world's largest oil and natural gas producer, and it is unlikely that drillers would accept lower commodity prices; they stop exploring, reducing the amount of supply and keeping prices "high." "One could argue that the United States is already a dominant force in the global supply of fossil fuels."
While Trump denies his involvement with Project 2025, former administration members wrote much of it, including J.D. Vance's introduction. Project 2025 portrays the Environmental Protection Agency as ideologically driven and an agency that must be curtailed at all costs, which would come at the expense of clean air and clean water. To that end, Trump repeatedly calls climate change a "hoax," and he ignored a question about it at the debate.
However, he let his sentiments about renewables and the current administration's energy policies be known. "Germany tried that, and within one year, they were back to building normal energy plants," Trump said Tuesday night. "We're not ready for it. We can't sacrifice our country for the sake of bad vision."
Germany's energy transition, known as Energiewende, stretches back to 1980. The country passed the Renewable Energy Act in 2000, which included feed-in tariffs and grid parity goals for clean energy. The government then set out to reduce fossil fuels from 80% of the energy supply to 20% a decade later, all by 2050. Now, renewables comprise half of the electricity mix.
Eliminating Russian natural gas has been one of the most challenging feats, as it supplied 55% of Germany's fuel. Germany had collaborated with Russia to construct Nord Stream 2, a pipeline that would have delivered natural gas to Germany's Baltic Coast cheaper than liquefied natural gas shipped in. However, following Russia's attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Germany canceled the $11 billion pipeline that spanned 745 miles. In the interim, it relied on coal plants to compensate for the loss of natural gas.
Despite its reliance on Russian oil and gas, the European Union -- more broadly -- plans to speed up its transition to renewable energy and minimize its ties to the Russian economy. The EU aims to increase its use of clean energy to 32% by 2030 and end its reliance on Russian fossil fuels. This strategy is driven by the belief that Russian President Putin threatens European and environmental security.
Europe's Green New Deal, established in 2019, aims to reduce the continent's greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The United States has similar goals. Both entities are parties to the Paris Climate Agreement, which has about 200 signatories. Trump withdrew from the global climate pact, which President Biden reversed.
The Biden-Harris team aims to make the nation carbon-neutral by 2050. This will require offsetting fossil fuels with renewables. The United States must electrify its economy, from transportation to manufacturing. To that end, the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and CHIPS and Science Act have spurred more than $500 billion in private investments and created 6.2 million new jobs from the pre-pandemic levels.
Still, the United States is filling Europe's gas void. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. LNG exports averaged a record 13.6 billion cubic feet per day in December 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar to become the world's leader. However, the agency also projects that the share of renewable energy used for electric generation will increase from 21% today to 44% in 2050.
According to Goldman Sachs, the economy would fare better under Vice President Harris than with Trump, who would hurt U.S. economic gains by increasing tariffs on foreign goods entering the country -- a de facto tax on the American public.
"We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse," Goldman Sachs wrote. "If Democrats sweep, new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to growth."
The Industrial Revolution has ushered in the digital era and the green energy economy. Consider Germany, where most companies are backing the energy transition and have reduced emissions across their supply chains: Those businesses are forging ahead. The presidential debate highlights that the United States is also at a crossroads, with voters being asked to either continue down the path outlined by Vice President Harris or to turn around and retreat.
Fossil fuels will continue to play a significant role domestically and globally. However, green energy is now the preferred fuel and is growing exponentially. Sneering at this experience is unwise -- a characteristic that will spook many voters and haunt Trump if he loses the presidential election.