The presidential election could influence how many homes are built in coming years, as both candidates have promised to make the market more affordable with different approaches.
It's hard to afford a house these days, but the nation's homebuilders are growing more hopeful that lower mortgage rates will drive down costs and bring priced-out buyers off the sidelines.
An index measuring how homebuilders feel about the short-term prospects of the market rose to a four-month high in October, the National Association of Home Builders said Thursday. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, based on surveys of builders, remained in pessimistic territory at 43, up from 41 in September but still below the level of 50 that would indicate optimism.
However, builders saw better prospects for sales of new single-family homes in the next six months, according to a subindex that rose to 57 from 53 in September, reaching the highest since April.
Builders expect more buyers to enter the market in the coming months as the Federal Reserve lowers its benchmark interest rate, which could put downward pressure on mortgage rates. In September, the Fed began to roll back interest rates as consumer price increases have fallen back toward pre-pandemic rates.
"Despite the beginning of the Fed's easing cycle, many prospective home buyers remain on the sideline waiting for lower interest rates," NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said in a press release.
"We are forecasting uneven declines for mortgage interest rates in the coming quarters, which will improve housing demand but place stress on building lot supplies due to tight lending conditions for development and construction loans."
The outlook for homebuilding could also be affected by the presidential election, with both candidates proposing policies that could shake up the housing market.
Kamala Harris has proposed using federal funds to encourage the construction of 3 million affordable homes and create a $25,000 tax credit for first-time buyers. Some economists have criticized the tax credit, predicting it would add fuel to already hot housing prices.
Trump has proposed deporting millions of illegal immigrants, which could reduce the demand for existing housing. However, homebuilders say this would decimate the homebuilding workforce and worsen the country's longstanding housing shortage in the long run.