Oregon (9-0) remains undefeated, gaining momentum weekly following narrow wins in their first two games of the season against Idaho and Boise State. Since then, the Ducks crushed @Oregon State, @UCLA and Michigan State by a total score of 114-37 and have re-established themselves as a program to be feared in Big Ten play. While the Ducks' offense ranks 4th in success rate and 7th in EPA/play, they are not stretching the field like last year, ranking 117th averaging 4.5 yards per completion and 93rd in yards per successful rush. Defensively their secondary is excellent, but OU is certifiably soft on the ground ranking 99th in EPA/rush and 89th in yards per successful rush.
Maryland (4-4) opened 3-1 with wins over UConn and @UVA in addition to a 27-24 loss to Michigan State where Maryland only had a 10%-win expectancy. Though they dropped a 42-28 decision to undefeated Indiana, the Terps actually had the smallest margin of defeat of any team Indiana has played this season, which is a feat unto itself. They got outclassed by Northwestern who leveled UM 37-10, before the Terps bounced back to squeeze out a 29-28 win over USC. HC Mike Locksley's offense is a pass-oriented group that ranks top-20 in both passing rate and completion rate (68.4%). A linebacker group that ranks 7th in havoc rate bolsters a credible run defense that slots in at 13th in yards per rush and 19th in yards after contact allowed.
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· Date: Saturday, November 9, 2024
· Time: 7:00 PM EST
· Site: Autzen Stadium
· City: Eugene, OR
· TV/Streaming: BTN
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The latest odds as of Friday morning courtesy of BetMGM:
Oregon opened as a -26.5 favorite, but we've seen that number move as low as -23.5. The Moneyline started at -3,200 and has improved slightly to -3,000 in most places, while Maryland opened at +1,400 and is available anywhere from +1,200 to +1,500. Game total has ticked up since opening at 57 to the 57.5/58.5 range.
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
"With Oregon holding opponents to 14 points or less in 6-of-9 contests, and having the benefit of playing in the contentious Autzen Stadium conditions, I don't think Maryland can run the ball well enough to open up the passing game against OU. I'm backing Maryland to go Under their 16.5 Team Point Total."
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