This 2024 Florida State team is a cautionary tale for all of college football's big-time programs. It's carrying the message that the benefits for living on the edge are higher in this new system but the bottom can quickly fall out for even blue bloods.
We're at Week 11 and the Seminoles are 1-8. I imagined in the preseason that writing this story would be a lot about how Florida State battled back from last season's implosion and would be a major test for Notre Dame. Had no idea that this season's "journey" would've caused us to overlook just how much things fell apart last year and still not know what rock bottom will really look like down in Tallahassee.
Florida State's only win this season has been against ACC newcomer California. They beat Cal 14-9. The win over the Golden Bears is the only thing keeping the Seminoles from sitting at the bottom of the ACC. Florida State is #16 out of 17 with a conference record of 1-7, compared with Cal who is #17 and 0-4 in conference play.
The Seminole's average point differential per game through Week 10 is -13. The problems seemed to containable through the season's first four games but they've just spiraled since. They followed up the Cal win with a -26 point loss to to fellow ACC freshman, SMU. That's their biggest loss margin of the season. They found some better footing in the 23-16 loss to Duke but that wasn't meant to last. Florida State will be coming into South bend reeling from a 36-14 loss to Miami (OH) and a 35-11 loss to North Carolina.
This was not the schedule for Florida State to have a bad season like this. Say what you want about the ACC's strength, they're still a Power 4 conference and FSU has played conference opponents in eight of its nine games. Sure that non conference game was a 20-12 loss to Memphis. They've just been hit by a perfect storm.
Florida State hasn't recorded more than 291 yards of total offense in a single game this season and they're only scoring an average of 14 points per game. Their passing production has been on a downward slope. They passed for 228 yards against Clemson but haven't tallied up more than 159 yards in their last three games. It's rare, and very unfortunate for FSU, to have passing accuracy trend so closely with yardage. They completed 70% of passes in the season opener against Georgia Tech. But they haven't cracked 60% since then and have hit rough floors of 34-35% passes completed.
Their rushing production is on the ups recently but that's relative to a pretty bad start. They just haven't demonstrated that they have much of a (positive) identity in either the passing or rushing game.
Senior running back Lawrance Toafili is Florida State's primary rushing weapon. He has 78 carries for 303 yards. The Florida State quarterbacks have played big roles in the run game. Luke Kromenhoek has 26 carriers for 70 yards. Brock Glenn has 24 carries for 82 yards. D.J. Uiagalelei's numbers look really bad in this area. He's #3 on the team with 37 carries but sits at the bottom for production with a net -8 yards. His rushing efficiency rounds out to 0 yards per carry.
Senior wide receivers Ja'khi Douglas and Malik Benson are Florida State's main receiving producers. Douglas has 25 catches for 404 yards and Benson has recorded 23 receptions for 302 yards. Running back Lawrance Toafili has also made sizable contributions to the receiving game. Tight ends Kyle Morlock and Landen Thomas have put up similar stats.
The Seminole's defense leaves a lot to be desired. Opposing defenses are scoring an average of 27 points per game. They've only allowed fewer than 336 yards of total offense in one game and that turned out to be 180 yards allowed by Duke. Opponents have found success both running and passing the ball. The defense is allowing an average of 201 passing yards per game and 191 yards on the ground. Florida State has been more hit-or-miss with defending the run than the pass but they've had some of the worst run defense performances in the last few games.
It's really easy to point a lot of fingers at Florida State's misery. But if this CFB season has taught us anything it's that if you don't take the cautionary tales seriously you'll probably find yourselves in those same conversations.
While that's top of mind, I still don't see a path to victory for FSU. I get the whole this is their Super Bowl thing but Florida State has really only faced mid-big name opponents and that braveheart moment should've come by now. And even if they do find one against the Irish, I don't think they've got what's needed to take down this team down.